In this project, we study how rainfall in Mauritius is influenced by large-scale circulation patterns such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Mauritius suffers from chronic water shortages that can severely impact its economy and the well-being of its population. Water availability in reservoirs and major aquifers are influenced by precipitation regimes, which are affected by large-scale circulation patterns such as ENSO and IOD. In this project we:

1. Investigate the relationship between both ENSO and IOD and precipitation,
2. Develop an Artificial Neural Network for precipitation prediction based on ENSO and IOD,
3. Develop statistical and time-series models for precipitation forecasting, and
4. Conduct a drought analysis based on multiple precipitation deficit variables (duration, severity, and inter-arrival time).

The findings from this study can help in more efficient planning and management of scarce water resources.